The state population is predicted to double by 2060, with growth spilling into rural Northeast Florida counties. Will they be ready?

By DAVID HUNT, The Times-Union

Growth: What lies ahead for Florida A study by 1000 Friends of Florida was sponsored in part by The St. Joe Co., Florida's largest private land owner and one of the state's biggest developers, major agribusiness A. Duda & Sons, and The Nature Conservancy. Full details can be found at 1000friendsofflorida.org. Duval built out around 2040 Here are the key findings of the 1000 Friends of Florida report: Duval County is projected to be completely built out sometime after 2040. By 2060, its population is expected to spill into Nassau, Clay, St. Johns and Baker counties, altering the rural character of each. Southeast Florida will become mostly urbanized. Only the Panhandle and Big Bend are expected to retain significant open space. All vacant land in the Keys will be consumed by 2060, including land not accessible by automobile. Baker, Flagler growth leaders The study identified Baker and Flagler among the top eight counties undergoing the greatest transformation within the next 50 years. Increase in urbanized area by county Baker 390 percent Desoto 890 percent Flagler 390 percent Glades 1,490 percent Hardee 1,430 percent Hendry 510 percent Osceola 390 percent Santa Rosa 370 percent What counties are doing to manage growth Here are some examples of what Northeast Florida officials said they are doing in an effort to prevent growing pains. Clay County "We've seen a slight decrease in new housing starts, but growth is still rapid," County Manager Fritz Behring said. He said managing growth is a hot issue between the School Board and County Commission. Dialogue has started between the two governing bodies to develop new ideas on everything from class-size guidelines to builder impact fees. Duval County Jacksonville officials are rewriting the zoning code, but Susie Wiles, spokeswoman for Mayor John Peyton, said day-to-day management is key in the ongoing decisions about how to grow the city. "It's not looking for new tools or bells and whistles. It's doing the best job you can with what you've got," she said. Nassau County Commission Chairman Jim B. Higginbotham said the commission has been meeting with planning officials twice monthly to try to tighten up the zoning code and streamline the permitting process for builders. "We're hoping within six to eight months we'll have it so if people want to build something, we can give them a whole book. That's been needed for a long time," he said. St. Johns County "Depending on who you talk to, we have between 70,000 and 120,000 houses approved to be built," said Interim County Administrator Waldemar J. Kropacek, describing an issue that had residents voting out county commissioners last fall. "We're trying to play catch-up in providing the infrastructure, particularly new roads."

MACCLENNY - The businesswoman in Terri Faudree likes what she's seeing, but the parent in her has concerns for the future.

Business at her Macclenny eatery, Calendar's Deli and Pizzeria, has picked up to the point that she's had to extend hours. It's a sign of growth in rural Baker County.

But if several big-ticket developments come through, replacing wooded land off U.S. 90 with thousands upon thousands of houses, her twin 15-year-old sons could find themselves wading through a flood of new students at school.

"One thing I've always enjoyed about being in a small town is all the teachers know your name," Faudree said. "The kids have the opportunity to be more than a student."

During the next 50 years, development could erase that small-town feel, according to a study released by Tallahassee-based growth-management group 1000 Friends of Florida. Urbanized land in Baker County is expected to increase by almost 400 percent because of spillover from a built-out Jacksonville, the study said.

The recorded population in 2005, 24,343, is expected to grow to 44,421 by 2060, but not everyone agrees with that projection. Baker County Manager Joe Cone said he thinks the county population could easily triple within 25 years. In a county with a $21.8 million budget, virtually no sewer service, hundreds of miles of unpaved roads and a hospital with only 25 beds, the potential for an influx of new residents has everyone thinking.

"As scary as this may seem with the major changes we're going through," Cone said, "if you look at it from a planning and management standpoint, it's really an opportunity."

Urbanizing Florida's open spaces and small towns is a familiar concept in the growing state.

Before James Darby moved to Flagler County and took the helm of its County Commission, he was a young man in Miami watching development poke at the Everglades. With developers eyeing the countryside he now represents, he said he thinks it's important to strike a balance between economic development and environmental impact.

"As long as we try to keep a reasonable balance, I think we'll pull it off," he said. "What the builders understand is this makes their product better by preserving a quality of life."

That's not always the case, said environmental writer and documentary film maker Bill Belleville, who has given lectures on the topic recently in Fernandina Beach and St. Augustine. He commended the state for developing a comprehensive growth-management plan. He just wishes everyone would stick to it.

"Unfortunately, we are a state driven by growth and development," he said, "which means builders and Realtors and developers have a huge amount of power and they use it."

The study

Flagler and Baker counties are among eight rural areas identified by the 1000 Friends of Florida study as projected to undergo the greatest change by 2060.

The study projects a state population burst of 18 million people - doubling the number of residents here now, at the rate of more than 900 people each day - as development swallows 7 million acres, or about one-third, of Florida's farms and open land. Almost 11 million acres of conservation lands would remain protected.

Northeast Florida's population is projected to more than double, going from 1.5 million to 3.5 million. Duval County is expected to run out of building space after 2040, and that will send droves flocking to Nassau, Clay, St. Johns and Baker counties, the study says.

Charles Pattison, 1000 Friends of Florida's president, said his group commissioned the study as a wake-up call to state and local leaders.

"It's like this was the U.S. in 1830 and people were thinking we'd never get enough people to fill this country," Pattison said. "We think it can show people you can have growth and do it responsibly."

Outside the box

For now, Dennis Markos isn't sure which way to turn.

As the chief executive officer of Baker County Medical Services, he's the top administrator for Ed Fraser Memorial, a 25-bed hospital in Macclenny that could either thrive or go broke depending on who moves to town.

Word has it some of the massive developments - Cone said developers are talking about 7,000- to 10,000-home self-sustaining communities - could be marketed exclusively to senior citizens. To Markos, that means Medicare. A lot of it.

The deeper meaning is even more services rendered for a mere 25 cents on the dollar reimbursement, he said.

"Twelve thousand Medicare recipients would bankrupt this hospital," he said.

Markos said the hospital is in the black, able to pay cash for new equipment, but floating a bond issue big enough for a new building is out of the question. The current structure isn't even a decade old, Markos said. Another factor: Growing bigger means competing with regional hospitals that have deeper pockets and well-established names.

"We're on the edge of a medical community," Markos said. "Our thinking has to be outside the box."

Tricky business

In embracing growth, counties are presented a chicken-and-egg scenario.

"The downside is you don't get the tax base until after the units are sold. Infrastructure isn't funded for several years," Darby said. "You just don't pump money into something that hasn't happened yet."

Baker County School Board member Patricia Weeks said the board has been in discussions with Macclenny and county officials over how to get the most out of developer impact fees, the money paid up front to offset the public cost of new building.

About 4,800 students attend Baker County schools. Until there are more firm plans for development, school officials say they're not sure how that's going to change.

Weeks said there has been talk of dividing up schools based on classes being held for certain grades in order to keep within class-size guidelines. School officials also are planning to build additional space at the high school, she said.

Jails, roads, water lines

Growth can be a juggling act, leaving elected officials to scramble for money to build everything from jails to roads to water lines. Christopher Holley, executive director of the Florida Association of Counties, said his group offers classes to help the public sector cope.

"Some of the commissioners we talk to aren't prepared," Holley said. "There's no silver bullet to stop people from moving to Florida."

Because of a recent lull in the housing market, planners say they're getting a breather to brainstorm.

"We're going to have to keep up with the pace," Darby said. "We need to use this slack period to pull our resources together."

Keeping green

Through the Florida Forever program, the state recently acquired a 4,500-acre tract in Marion County and 2,200 acres in the Panhandle that's being eyed for parks, Department of Environmental Protection spokeswoman Sarah Williams said. Information published by the program says it has acquired more than 1 million acres throughout the past five years.

"Our challenge is to make sure that growth is done responsibly," Williams said.

A similar plan took shape locally in 1999, when former Jacksonville Mayor John Delaney unveiled a $312 million plan to preserve 20 square miles of undeveloped land in the city. Environmentalists praised the initiative.

State Rep. Will Kendrick, R-Franklin County, chairman of the House Committee on Conservation and State Lands, said it's important that the state has plans for the Forever Florida land.

"We're using public tax dollars. We want to make sure they're public uses," he said. "We shouldn't be buying just to prevent growth."

Kendrick said growth causes a lot of debate probably best resolved at the local level.

"When we do something in Tallahassee, it's going to affect different parts of the state differently," he said.